by Northern Plains Drainage Systems
Check the Rain Odds for your exact location - anywhere in Canada or the USA
Fetching additional forecast data...
Checking the Rain Odds...
The horizontal bar shows the Rain Odds spread. The three markers on that bar are:
How to read the Rain Odds bar:
The single best number to plan around. Works well when the bar is narrow; be more cautious when it's wide.
About 80% of likely outcomes fall between these. Outside this range is possible but lower probability.
Shows the Rain Odds probability of surpassing common thresholds (e.g., 5 mm, 10 mm, 25 mm). Useful for weighing risk of heavy rain.
Rain Odds™ forecasts are grouped into overlapping windows: – 12h / 24h → short-term operational calls – 48h / 72h → medium-range planning
All Rain Odds numbers are liquid water equivalent (mm or inches). In cold weather, convert to snowfall depth:
Example: Rain Odds P50 of 10 mm → ~10 cm average snow, or up to 15–20 cm in very cold conditions.
Unlike traditional forecasts that give you a single number (like "10 mm expected"), Rain Odds™ shows you the full range of possibilities from multiple weather models. This helps you understand not just what's most likely, but also what could happen if conditions change.
Rain Odds™ shows area-wide patterns but generally doesn't capture local thunderstorms or convective activity. Individual storms can dump significant rainfall in small areas that won't show up in these ensemble forecasts. During thunderstorm season, some locations may receive much more rain than predicted here due to storm cells passing overhead.
For the most complete picture, check the Rain Odds™ alongside:
Think of Rain Odds™ as your "big picture" tool for planning, while radar and local forecasts help with immediate decisions.
Rain Odds™ excels at predicting:
It's less accurate for:
Use the P50 (most likely) value for general planning, but consider the full range:
The timestamp shown on Rain Odds™ indicates when the weather models started running, not when the data becomes available. These complex models take significant time to process billions of calculations across North America.
Environment Canada's ensemble models run 4 times daily:
Times shown for Central Time (Manitoba). Adjust for your timezone.
Important: Data typically becomes available 3-5 hours after the model run starts. Here's why:
For example, the 00Z run (7:00 PM CDT) typically becomes available between 10:00 PM and midnight CDT.
For the freshest Rain Odds™ in Central Time, check around:
Understanding this timing helps you:
Rain Odds™ automatically checks for new data every 5 minutes while you have the page open. When fresh data arrives, you'll see a notification and the forecast will update automatically. No need to keep refreshing manually!
Disclaimer: Rain Odds™ displays publicly available ensemble forecast data from Environment and Climate Change Canada. This tool does not predict weather - it presents statistical probability models that are subject to change. Weather is inherently unpredictable. Rain Odds™ does not generally predict localized heavy rain or flooding from isolated thunderstorms or severe weather events. Always consult traditional weather forecasts, weather warnings, and multiple sources before making critical decisions. Times shown in local timezone. For informational and educational purposes only. Northern Plains Drainage Systems makes no warranties or guarantees regarding accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. Users assume all risk. Check forecasts frequently as conditions change.
